Best seed outlook: On paper, the Midwest appears to be the most open of those four regions, but we nevertheless give No. 1 North Carolina the greatest odds, using a 35 percent probability of reaching the Final Four and an 18 percent likelihood of appearing in the national championship game. Those odds are at least 8 percentage points lower than any other No. 1 team in the field, though, and for good reason: North Carolina’s crime is dependent on turning every play right into a fast break. The Tar Heels struggle to get to the free-throw lineup and give up a slew of shots across the perimeter, which, at a slowed-down, half-court matchup, could be rather problematic.
After getting waxed by Duke to open the season, No. 2 Kentucky has caught fire in recent months while discovering equilibrium on both ends of the floor and largely abstaining in the 3-point line. No. 3 Houston, meanwhile, is in the middle of its best season since Clyde Drexler and Hakeem Olajuwon were revolutionizing college basketball, and they boast a defense which ranks among the very best along and inside the perimeter.
Sneaky Final Four select: No. 5 Auburn. When the Tigers steamrolled Tennessee 84-64 in Sunday’s SEC title game, it likely got the attention of a lot of bracket-pickers. That was not a one-off — Auburn also conquer Tennessee eight days before, a portion of a series of eight straight wins for the Tigers, and 10 in their past 11 games. Having an explosive offense (No. 8 in KenPom efficacy ) that acquired more of its points from downtown compared to every other team in the NCAA field, Auburn can heat up in a hurry. We give the Tigers nearly a coin-flip’s odds of making the Sweet 16 — and also a very solid 37 percent likelihood of beating top-seeded North Carolina when the Tar Heels are awaiting Auburn there. The only kryptonite might be a hypothetical regional-final matchup with No. 2 seed Kentucky, which defeat the Tigers from 27 in late February to sweep their season collection.
Don’t bet on: No. 4 Kansas. The Jayhawks went into the season ranked No. 1 in the AP’s preseason poll, and they appeared to validate that the option by starting the season 10-0. However a 15-9 record (and some critical injuries) since then have cast doubt on Kansas’s NCAA Tournament possible. This really is a well-balanced group, but to state it doesn’t shoot well from the exterior is a understatement — see KU’s 3-for-18 functionality from profound in Saturday’s Big 12 ouster against Iowa State. Insert a negative draw that sets them on a potential second-round collision course with Auburn (see above), and also we give the Jayhawks only an 8% chance of making out of the Midwest with their championship hopes undamaged.
Cinderella see: No. 11 Ohio State. In case a Big Ten team which has made 11 Final Fours can be a Cinderella, then you are looking at it in those Buckeyes. (Hey, the committee’s rising tendency to con underwhelming power-conference colleges this manner really contrasts with the definition.) OSU went only 18-13 during the regular season, was defeated its second Big Ten tournament game and contains nearly two times as many losses as wins because New Year’s. Why are the Buckeyes a possible Cinderella? Despite the seed, this is still a dangerous group, one which ranks 27th from Pomeroy’s corrected defensive ratings and has celebrity forwards Kaleb Wesson back out of suspension. So perhaps they will provide Big 12 champ Iowa State trouble. But mainly this tells you something about another potential Cinderellas in this area: Seton Hall got an extremely tough first-round matchup with underseeded Wofford; none of the other low seeds are world-beaters. That leaves the Buckeyes, a team which did all it could to perform its way from the tournament, but includes some upset potential regardless.
Player to watch: UNC, Cameron Johnson On a group that doesn’t hoist a ton of shots from the perimeter, Johnson is as deadly as they come. Observing an injury-riddled campaign in which he made more than one third of his looks from outside the arc, the graduate student is canning 46.5 percent of his attempts, which ranks inside the top 25 nationally.
Johnson has thrived in North Carolina’s every-possession-is-a-transition-opportunity plot this year. He’s blossomed into one of the best scorers in the ACC, standing between the 85th and 100th percentiles in scoring efficiency in transitionoff displays and on spot-ups.
Johnson has elevated his game in conference play, boasting the ACC’s top offensive rating (132.5) and accurate shooting percentage (64.6). Unexpectedly, a participant who was not seen as a guaranteed professional now projects for a second-round pick.
Likeliest first-round upsets: No. 9 Washington over No. 8 Utah State (49 percent); No. 10 Seton Hall over No. 7 Wofford (37 percent); No. 11 Ohio State over No. 6 Iowa State (33 percent)
Have a look at our latest March Madness forecasts.
CORRECTION (March 18, 2019, 3:10 p.m.): A former version of this story misstated the number of Sweet 16s created by Villanova in recent seasons. Although the Wildcats have reached the NCAA Tournament’s »third round » in four of their past five seasons, that around was the Round of 32 before 2016 due to NCAA naming conventions.

Read more: footballleagueworld.com

1 réponse

Répondre

Se joindre à la discussion ?
Vous êtes libre de contribuer !

Laisser un commentaire

Votre adresse de messagerie ne sera pas publiée.