The Matt LaFleur-Aaron Rodgers Era has started — for worse or better. The early returns don’t look too good for your Green Bay Packers: They beat the Chicago Bears (–3 at home) 10-3 in Thursday’s season opener, together using Rogers moving 18-of-30 for 203 yards and a touchdown. Defense? Quite yes. Offense? Not so much.
The Minnesota Vikings (–3.5 at residence ) looked a lot better in their own 28-12 win over the Atlanta Falcons, leaning on both protection and rushing to find the job done. Old-school! Along with the consensus reports at press time reveal the Vikings with a 54-percent lean as 2.5-point street dogs for Sunday’s matchup (1 p.m. ET, FOX) from Green Bay. Can they belong within our NFL picks?
Quite possibly. FiveThirtyEight sees the Packers as just 1.5-point faves, with their own Elo-based projections. Jeff Sagarin’s numbers in The USA Today are pretty close to the NFL odds together with Minnesota rated ahead of Green Bay on neutral ground.
Why the distinction? Week 1 is still in progress as we go to press, and Sagarin’s numbers haven’t been upgraded yet. They will want to be, following the difficulties the offense had at Soldier Field. Grantedthe Bears had the best defense in the league last year, according to the DVOA stats (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) at Football Outsiders. Before betting, get those fresh numbers.
Meanwhile, we cashed in with all the »below » past Thursday, so maybe that’s well worth another shot. The consensus reports show 57 percent of bettors that are ancient feeling the identical style, driving down the from 46 to as much as 44. At that time, 45 is still available; till we’ve got some total projections to work with, we’re essentially working with a net, however the »under » has some merit .
We already know although that might/should shift as Rodgers and LaFleur get a few more repetitions in — Green Bay’s offense is sketchy. It looks like the Vikings want to run the ballwhich is always great for chewing up the clock. And both defenses appear to be doing just fine through 60 minutes of play.
Free NFL Pick: Beneath 45 (–107) at BetMania
Jason’s 2019 NFL picks album through Week 1: 0-0 ATS, 1-0 Totals
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